Cleggmania – The polls are tightening, but is it sustainable?

A flurry of polling activity over the weekend all show the same thing – that, at least in terms of share of the vote, this election is anyone’s.

ComRes/IoS/Sunday Mirror – Con 31, Lab 27, Lib Dem 29
ICM/Sunday Telegraph – Con 34, Lab 29, Lib Dem 27
You Gov/Sun – Con 33, Lab 26, Lib Dem 34

An average of these gives you something along the lines of Con 33, Lab 28 and Lib Dem 30. Popping this through the BBCs fabulous seat predictor and this is what the House of Commons might look like. Labour would be the biggest party with 275 seats, but still 51 seats short of an overall majority. The Tories would be on 244 (and almost definitely looking for a new leader) and the Lib-Dems would be king-makers with 102 seats.

What is interesting however is that, even if you look at Monday’s You Gov poll, which has the Lib-Dems in the lead they are unlikely to pick up more that about 150 seats in total. If this polling was reflective of general election voting (a big if I know) then the UK could be in a position of the party with the highest number of votes coming in a distant third in terms of number of seats. If anything shows the ludicrous state of the current voting system surely it is that.

This bigger question for now however is how long is this Cleggmania is sustainable for? Will the press and through them the public tire of the Lib-Dems before polling-day? Or, is this the start of something more profound? What is definite is that neither of the other parties know quite what to do. Attack and you look desperate and panicked, sit-back and you risk the Lib-Dems building on the current momentum.


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